Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin and gold both posted negative returns in 2026 YTD, a first-time double loss among major assets.
- S&P 500 AI-related stocks surged (19 of 20 stocks that doubled are AI-linked), but software stocks suffered, signaling market dislocations.
- The Fed shifted from rate-cut to rate-hike expectations, a move to rebuild credibility.
- US strategic petroleum reserves hit a 42-year low, down 46% over five years.
- Iran announced closure of the Strait of Hormuz; US denied, creating geopolitical uncertainty.
1. Market Dislocations: Narrow AI Leadership and Broader Weakness
- Bitcoin (-28%) and gold (-2%) are the worst-performing major assets YTD 2026, a combination never seen before — via 1
- S&P 500 has 20 stocks that have doubled this year, 19 of which are AI-related; the 20 worst performers include 13 software companies, as AI is seen as an existential threat to traditional software — via 1 2
- The Fed has shifted from forecasting rate cuts to rate hikes, a correct move according to some to restore anti-inflation credibility — via 1
- US strategic petroleum reserves are at their lowest since July 1983, having declined by 285 million barrels (46%) over the past five years — via 1
2. Geopolitical Risk: Strait of Hormuz Tensions
- Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US denied the closure, creating uncertainty over global oil supply routes — via 1
3. AI and Technology: Rapid Progress and Infrastructure Debates
- Elad Gil notes AI is entering a new era with major leaps every six months — via 1
- Marc Andreessen highlights a study showing data centers actually lowered national electricity prices from 2015 to 2024, challenging common narratives — via 1 2
- Marc Andreessen shares progress using Claude Code to decipher Linear A, a 3,500-year-old script, and hopes it passes peer review — via 1
- Marc Andreessen pushes back on US empire decline theory, asserting "Turbo America" dominance and questioning how to direct it for prosperity and security — via 1
