Key Takeaways
- July headline CPI came in at 3.4% YoY, matching forecasts; core inflation cooled to 2.5%, but headline has now stayed above the Fed’s 2% target for 65 straight months. — via 1 2
- Consumer debt stress is at multi-year highs: 12.9% of credit card balances were 90+ days delinquent, with student and auto loans also elevated; NY Fed data shows the youngest borrowers have the highest severe credit card delinquency. — via 1 2 3
- Housing supply has risen to the highest level since 2019 and rents have fallen for 38 consecutive months, making renting cheaper than owning in the 50 largest U.S. metros. — via 1 2 3
- The jobs picture is softening: ADP private payrolls added under 10k in the four weeks to July 25, while NFIB small-business hiring plans hit their highest since October 2022 even as more openings go unfilled. — via 1 2 3
- Spruce Point issued an unverified short thesis on iRhythm, alleging the VitalConnect acquisition wasted roughly $237M in cash and could leave the stock with 40–70% downside. — via 1
1. Inflation and Consumer Debt
- July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core CPI up 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. Energy-related categories drove the upside: fuel oil was up 39.1% and gasoline 24.6% over the year. Over the past seven years, coffee, ground beef, and egg prices are up 123%, 81%, and 76%, respectively. — via 1 2 3
- Bilello argues the Fed has failed on inflation: CPI has exceeded the 2% target for 65 straight months, and since January 2020 the annualized CPI gain is 4%, roughly 13% above the 2% trend. He frames this as a loss of Fed credibility rather than price stability. — via 1 2
- Household balance sheets are under pressure: 12.9% of credit card balances were 90+ days delinquent, near the 2011 high; student loan delinquencies hit 10.6%, the highest since 2020; and auto loan delinquencies are at 5.5%. NY Fed data for 2Q26 shows 18–29 year olds still have the highest severe credit card delinquency rate even as total debt balances dipped slightly. — via 1 2 3
2. Housing, Demographics, and Local Economies
- The U.S. population aged 65+ has doubled to 66M since 1990 and is projected to reach 78M in ten years; Bilello highlights the consequences for labor supply, housing, healthcare, government spending, and overall economic growth. — via 1
- Housing supply is piling up: active listings exceed 1.1M, the most since 2019. Rents fell 1.1% YoY, marking 38 consecutive months of declines, and renting is now cheaper than owning in all of the 50 largest U.S. metros. Existing-home sales growth also cooled sharply, with YoY momentum slowing from +3.8% in June to +0.7% in July. — via 1 2 3
- Data center construction is being cited as a positive local economic force: Elad Gil highlights effects including new housing supply, rising home prices, falling unemployment, and job growth. — via 1
3. Labor Market and Small Business
- Private-sector hiring has slowed sharply: ADP data for the four weeks ending July 25 showed fewer than 10k net new private jobs, marking the seventh consecutive weekly slowdown. — via 1
- Small-business signals are mixed: NFIB’s July survey shows hiring plans at the highest since October 2022, yet a larger share of owners report open positions they cannot fill; actual and planned capital expenditures rose, mainly for new equipment, vehicles, and facility improvements or expansion. — via 1 2
4. Markets, Products, and Independent Investment Signals
- Raoul Pal lays out a macro framework in which population acts as “computing nodes,” productivity as generated intelligence, and debt as energy when the first two stall. In depreciating economies, capital tends to flow to tech and crypto because they can still scale economic intelligence and compound faster. — via 1
- Pal also warns that the U.S. retirement crisis is structural, not a personal-savings problem: the median worker holds only $955 in retirement savings, and wage purchasing power relative to the S&P 500 has been cut roughly in half since 2008. — via 1
- Cambria’s Global Equal Weight 3 ETF (GEX) is expected to begin trading on November 10, 2026, with a 0.25% total expense ratio; Cambria will hold an online webinar on August 13. — via 1
- Market sentiment has reached an extreme: Market Vane bullishness is 79%, the highest since the summer of 1997 just before the Asian financial crisis. — via 1
- Long-term investing evidence remains supportive: since 1989, money invested at all-time highs has historically outperformed investing on random days, and $10,000 in the S&P 500 from 50 years ago would now be worth over $3.7M. Ben Carlson similarly argues the stock market is poor for fast-money traders but favorable for long-term investors, with the S&P 500 averaging +15.7% annually in the 2020s. — via 1 2 3 4
- Spruce Point Capital published an unverified short report on iRhythm (IRTC), alleging the company is spending about $237M on VitalConnect (roughly 40% of cash) in a dilutive deal, faces a federal safety investigation, trades at a 100–200% premium to peers, and has 40–70% downside. The report also argues the product is commoditized and pricing power is limited. — via 1
