Small-Cap Rally Leads Markets as Fed Divided on Rate Policy

US small-cap stocks posted their best first half since 1991, with the Russell 2000 outperforming large caps by the widest margin since 2001.
The Federal Reserve is divided on rate policy, with most members seeing rate hikes if inflation persists but cuts if it returns to 2%.
Marc Andreessen and @jason launched the OpenClaw Foundation, a nonprofit aiming to deliver open-source, independent personal AI.
Raoul Pal argues the current AI cycle is a supercycle, not a bubble, as companies cannot afford to stop investing.
EU's DAC8 crypto reporting regulation faces a legal challenge from Bull Bitcoin over privacy concerns.
New Zealand raised rates for the first time in three years, while Japan's yen hit a 38-year low against the dollar.

US small-cap stocks surged over 22% in the first half of 2026, the best H1 since 1991, and outperformed large caps by the widest margin since 2001. Meanwhile, emerging markets and international equities beat US stocks, value beat growth, and the "Magnificent Seven" declined year-to-date. — via 1 2
The yen fell to its lowest level against the dollar since 1986, down 54% from its 2011 peak. New Zealand raised its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 2.50%, its first hike in three years. — via 1 2
Bond markets have flipped from pricing two Fed rate cuts to pricing one to two rate hikes this year, a ~1% swing in expectations. The Fed's FOMC minutes showed near-unanimous views that rate hikes would be needed if inflation persists, but rate cuts are possible if inflation returns to 2% quickly. — via 1 2
Consumer credit unexpectedly fell by $182 million in May, the biggest monthly drop since 2024, vs. expected $17.5 billion increase. Existing home sales fell 2.4% in June vs. expected +1.0%, while median home prices hit a record $440,600. — via 1 2
Raoul Pal noted that the Nasdaq 100's 15-year correlation with global liquidity is 97%, and developed the "Everything Code" framework. He argues the current AI race is a supercycle, not a repeat of the dot-com bubble, because companies cannot afford to stop spending. He also stated diversification is dead as central banks expand liquidity at 8% annually, requiring 11% returns to avoid asset shrinkage. — via 1 2 3

Marc Andreessen announced the establishment of the OpenClaw Foundation, a nonprofit dedicated to bringing open, independent personal AI to everyone, calling it the "lobster era." He also noted that GPT-5.6 Sol Pro has saturated its benchmarks in professional legal research, and believes no more than 12 practicing lawyers could outperform it. — via 1 2
@jason echoed the OpenClaw Foundation announcement, describing it as fulfilling OpenAI's original mission of open-source, independent personal AI. He also observed that at RaiseSummit, discussions have shifted from whether AI will arrive to who builds, funds, and wins. — via 1 2
Elad Gil highlighted that Harvey's team is expanding from application to model layer, from legal to high-end knowledge work, hiring AI researchers focused on large-scale model training, synthetic data, long-horizon RL, and real deployment evaluation, with thousands of GPUs and unique training data. — via 1
Marc Andreessen argued AI is the frontier of free speech, shaping what people read, write, ask, and know, and the worst response is to let panicked governments decide what AI tools can produce. — via 1

Lyn Alden flagged the EU's DAC8 crypto reporting regulation, which requires crypto asset service providers to systematically collect user data and share it across borders, posing significant privacy and security risks. Bull Bitcoin has filed a legal challenge at the French Council of State, seeking to annul the decree, and plans to appeal to the European Court of Justice and the French Constitutional Council. — via 1
Raoul Pal acquired the iconic "dying is not enough" series 1/1 artwork from @toadswiback for 50 ETH in collaboration with @Blondie23LMD, praising its conceptual, artistic, and writing depth. — via 1 2

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