Consumer Sentiment Slumps, GEX ETF Gets Launch Date, Anduril Satellite Reaches Orbit

Key Takeaways

• University of Michigan consumer sentiment dropped to 51.0 against a 55.0 consensus, while July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month; still, wage-gap data and high-income spending signal underlying resilience. — via 1 2
• Meb Faber's Cambria global equal-weight ETF (GEX) is targeted to start trading on Nov. 10, 2026 at a 0.25% fee, alongside his sharp criticism of asset-gathering fund launches. — via 1 2
• Raoul Pal argues GDP measurement will be obsolete by 2030 as robotics, AI, energy density and compute efficiency change the economy; Meb Faber's talk with Luke Gromen frames a 40-year US policy reversal and gold's role. — via 1 2
• Anduril's ANDURIL-216 went from concept to orbit in under two years and Lattice commanded an on-orbit spacecraft for the first time. — via 1
• Clifford Asness insists investing is positive-NPV while 0DTE options and sports betting are negative-sum, and passive fund holders are not trading against market makers. — via 1
• Morgan Housel's new Psychology of Money podcast covers Bitcoin and the idea that enthusiasm is the opposite of information; Reid Hoffman confirms he privately funded UBI experiments with zero press coverage. — via 1 2

1. Macro Data and Consumer Sentiment

1. The August University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 51.0, below the 55.0 consensus and the prior 55.2; one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.3% while the 5-10 year measure stayed at 3.3%. That combination points to weaker confidence and stickier near-term price expectations. — via 1 2
2. July retail sales dropped 0.6% month-over-month and the control group fell 0.4%, both sharply below expectations, though Johnson Redbook's +8.3% year-over-year retail gauge remains far above last year. This mixed picture keeps the consumer slowdown debate open. — via 1 2
3. AAII sentiment showed bullishness easing to 34.7% from 37.0% and bearishness ticking down to 37.9% from 38.0%, while Google Trends interest in "risk appetite" is running well above "risk aversion." Retail investors look cautious but still preoccupied with upside. — via 1 2
4. Redfin data show US homebuyer demand fell to a record low in July, and Atlanta Fed wage tracking shows the top-bottom quartile wage growth gap narrowed to just 10 basis points (+3.8% vs +3.7%). Housing remains the weakest link in the consumer picture. — via 1 2
5. Ben Carlson says economic resilience is rooted in an unprecedented number of wealthy people and unemployment below 5% for about five years, or nine if you exclude the COVID shock; those groups keep spending. That helps explain why confidence can fall while spending holds up. — via 1

2. Markets, ETFs and Investing Philosophy

1. Cambria's global equal-weight ETF (GEX) is expected to begin trading on Nov. 10, 2026 with a 0.25% fee, and Meb Faber will host a webinar to explain the product. It adds a broadly diversified global equal-weight option at a competitive price. — via 1
2. Meb Faber criticized fund companies that launch a "spray-and-pray" lineup of products clearly bad for investors, arguing such firms are not fiduciaries but asset-gathering predators. He also pressed journalists to ask managers how much of their own money is in each fund. — via 1
3. Ben Carlson notes the S&P 500 has compounded at nearly 16% annually in the 2020s, but achieving those returns means ignoring a huge amount of market noise. It is a useful reminder that headline volatility does not equal poor outcomes. — via 1
4. Clifford Asness says investing is positive-NPV while gambling is negative-NPV, and 0DTE options and sports betting will lose money over time because participants behave irrationally, not because markets are rigged. That frames day-trading as a cost, not a source of edge. — via 1 2
5. Asness also explains that passive retail fund holders are not trading on the opposite side of market makers; market makers mostly offset risk on the other side at historically low costs. But that does not make retail day-trading sensible. — via 1
6. Meb Faber shared Burton Malkiel's view that the most important factor in long-term investment success is yourself, not the market or economy. It reinforces the behavioral focus of the day's conversation. — via 1

3. Long-Term Economic Regime and Affordability

1. Raoul Pal predicts that GDP as currently measured will be obsolete by 2030 because robots, AI, energy density and computational efficiency are entering the economic equation exponentially, making traditional gauges inaccurate. This is a structural warning for anyone relying on legacy macro data. — via 1
2. In a discussion with Luke Gromen, Meb Faber covered the reversal of a 40-year US economic policy regime, the "stupid Washington consensus," a return of Hamiltonian economics, bearishness on real long bonds, gold as a core portfolio allocation, and AI as a fiscal problem described as "the snake eating its own tail." These are counter-consensus portfolio signals. — via 1
3. Clifford Asness argues most goods are more affordable relative to wages, with a Chipotle burrito falling from 20 minutes of average work in 2010 to 18 minutes in 2026. He says both left and right have political incentives to make the economy look worse than it is. — via 1 2 3 4
4. Asness also says JD Vance wants to end the dollar's global reserve status because it lets Americans consume too much and too cheaply; he says to remember that when ordering a $20 burrito through DoorDash. The debate over dollar dominance is now embedded in everyday pricing. — via 1

4. Technology, Space and Ideas

1. Elad Gil highlighted Anduril's ANDURIL-216 satellite, which went from design to orbit in less than two years, is operating normally, and gave Lattice its first command of an on-orbit spacecraft. It marks a rapid milestone for commercial space and defense tech. — via 1
2. Clifford Asness says US healthcare costs are high partly because the country spends heavily to save extremely low-birthweight infants and provide end-of-life care, a sign of wealth and advanced medicine rather than failure. He adds that poor diets also add to costs, and "freedom is not always sugar-free." — via 1
3. Morgan Housel released a Psychology of Money podcast covering Bitcoin, a reasonable way to see the world, and the line that "enthusiasm is the opposite of information." It offers a behavioral lens for evaluating new assets and narratives. — via 1
4. Reid Hoffman says he privately funded UBI experiments with zero media exposure just to test whether UBI matters, arguing this says more about character than any statement. His admission adds a personal data point to the UBI debate. — via 1